Fifa International · resolved market
Will Nepal win on 2026-03-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44add43d67d0fa2c07dc3e5ab287aad5ac0bff72b9f0f6e6dc0da49a1f9d9a5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,858 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a54…9a83backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5055…b09bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Yes | 0c | 5,101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,620$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 200 | 31%62 W · 138 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 5c | 2,073$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…9d08backed Yes | 10c | 1,934$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,896$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,816$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…6268backed Yes | 6c | 1,792$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,735$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…e4b4backed Yes | 15c | 1,699$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…6dd0backed Yes | 3c | 1,537$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,463$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edc…b1e8backed Yes | 4c | 1,355$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…9dfdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed Yes | 6c | 931.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 12c | 871$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 3c | 824.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 21c | 714.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d9…441dbacked Yes | 8c | 591.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…e53bbacked Yes | 34c | 570.85$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…8036backed Yes | 3c | 478.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…6a23backed Yes | 5c | 466.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0125…ddd1backed Yes | 5c | 405.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…179abacked Yes | 4c | 394.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…28f9backed Yes | 5c | 377.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…714bbacked Yes | 3c | 346.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Yes | 5c | 331.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed Yes | 3c | 313.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 15c | 294.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…599ebacked Yes | 11c | 260.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…db17backed Yes | 11c | 228.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…eb10backed Yes | 6c | 174.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…f3e2backed Yes | 7c | 163.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…323ebacked Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…2d4bbacked Yes | 10c | 149.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b8…c965backed Yes | 7c | 140.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 33c | 115$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 15c | 105.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…9e18backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 14c | 72.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 33c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 75c | 30.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 209 | 68.4%143 W · 66 L | +21.5wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nepal win on 2026-03-26?this page
- Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-03-26?No won
- Will Nepal vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.