Fifa International · resolved market
Will Nepal vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa66a4ef7d31ea44fcddfbafc902ae2ddfb114c04d178e1e38477fe384641e26b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,929 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb508…bafbbacked No | 1c | 57,529$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 77c | 8,382$6,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.11 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 24c | 5,761$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.33 | 371 | 44.5%165 W · 206 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Yes | 65c | 5,081$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.53 | 518 | 59.8%310 W · 208 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 34c | 4,992$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.35 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 80c | 3,156$2,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.85 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 3c | 2,913$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…f773backed No | 8c | 2,665$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed No | 4c | 2,577$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 2,265$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 4c | 2,195$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 39c | 2,147$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.66 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 40c | 2,090$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed No | 7c | 2,000$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 1c | 1,990$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 200 | 31%62 W · 138 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,572$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 36c | 1,462$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.72 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…3678backed No | 31c | 1,071$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed No | 38c | 1,005$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 6c | 961.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…e53bbacked No | 33c | 841.4$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 7c | 757.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 73.6%53 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 647.48$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.27 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked No | 5c | 555.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 29c | 535$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 607 | 52.4%318 W · 289 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 24c | 514.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Yes | 72c | 499.94$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 335 | 55.5%186 W · 149 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 29c | 486.85$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Yes | 71c | 485.94$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 7c | 462.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…e759backed No | 7c | 439.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe29b…da59backed No | 3c | 435.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 7c | 413.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 23c | 400$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked No | 10c | 389.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 70c | 331.38$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 3c | 311.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…7cd9backed No | 7c | 281.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d68…4354backed Yes | 73c | 279$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +10.5wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 6c | 252.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 229$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 50c | 210.58$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 245 | 37.1%91 W · 154 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…ca6dbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bc…2aafbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 80c | 179.52$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed Yes | 47c | 177.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 172.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed No | 8c | 151.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 9c | 146.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…7688backed No | 8c | 125.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 26c | 115.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 403 | 55.3%223 W · 180 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 14c | 108.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 38c | 90.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 226 | 23.5%53 W · 173 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…cd18backed Yes | 75c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…00aabacked Yes | 64c | 53.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 36c | 49.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f73…dcdebacked Yes | 65c | 42.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 28c | 39.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed No | 42c | 35.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…97a1backed Yes | 73c | 35.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…75a6backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 68c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes | 69c | 14.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nepal vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw?this page
- Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-03-26?No won
- Will Nepal win on 2026-03-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.