Fifa International · resolved market
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-03-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x599d80339792a3e488c180a3e8898038c53de333bf39701384b5c26ea82fd259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,520 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a54…9a83backed Yes | 0c | 10,610$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5055…b09bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…67e4backed Yes | 0c | 5,262$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…6268backed Yes | 4c | 5,026$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,862$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 200 | 31%62 W · 138 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,873$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 10c | 2,540$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 6c | 2,508$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…9d08backed Yes | 9c | 2,143$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…6dd0backed Yes | 3c | 1,950$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…e4b4backed Yes | 9c | 1,748$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edc…b1e8backed Yes | 4c | 1,340$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 8c | 1,307$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,284$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 2c | 1,231$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,192$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…e53bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,153$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…2f48backed Yes | 9c | 1,152$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 1,124$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,095$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…8036backed Yes | 3c | 954.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 15c | 760.31$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed Yes | 6c | 682.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Yes | 8c | 671.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d9…441dbacked Yes | 8c | 635.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Yes | 2c | 616.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…ca9dbacked Yes | 8c | 606.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 564.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…599ebacked Yes | 6c | 503.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…b50dbacked Yes | 3c | 481.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…6a23backed Yes | 6c | 449.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes | 4c | 430$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 3c | 426.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 6c | 420$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…28f9backed Yes | 5c | 377.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…c191backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…2d4bbacked Yes | 6c | 360.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…823bbacked Yes | 22c | 342.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…f3e2backed Yes | 5c | 306.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…bea0backed Yes | 7c | 305.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…db17backed Yes | 8c | 300.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf790…8476backed Yes | 4c | 296.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 287.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Yes | 4c | 232.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 8c | 231.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…c115backed Yes | 8c | 218.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Yes | 5c | 209.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 48c | 201.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 245 | 37.1%91 W · 154 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Yes | 14c | 186.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c0b2backed Yes | 7c | 178.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0125…ddd1backed Yes | 6c | 170.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 6c | 157.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 10c | 152.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 10c | 150.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…cd18backed Yes | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 8c | 126.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 23.2%107 W · 355 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…9e18backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 30.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed No | 53c | 21.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-03-26?this page
- Will Nepal vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Nepal win on 2026-03-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.