Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44cf076e74c7b84a3ecc3e6fcb9571e531521df968ee0b43756f44477e666536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1083…be16backed Yes | 79c | 6,311$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 14c | 3,800$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 4c | 3,400$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 14c | 2,850$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…25a4backed No | 2c | 2,753$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 1c | 2,197$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 12c | 1,496$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…793dbacked No | 14c | 894.57$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 12c | 832$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 8c | 574.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 24c | 456.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.18 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed Yes | 29c | 408.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dd…ddd2backed Yes | 29c | 358.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +250.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 16c | 292.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.61 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…148dbacked Yes | 20c | 252.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 249$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 17c | 248$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.74 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 235$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 233.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.66 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 17c | 209.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.82 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…e6c0backed Yes | 18c | 195.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 10c | 166.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 10c | 155$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 20c | 153$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 130$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 12c | 129.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed Yes | 31c | 129.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…2a53backed No | 9c | 123.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…cb00backed No | 80c | 118.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 113.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 105.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 25c | 101.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +307.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 90.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 73c | 81.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 15c | 81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 80.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 72.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…18dfbacked Yes | 21c | 72.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 18c | 72.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…9924backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…a14fbacked Yes | 33c | 66.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 23c | 63.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 65c | 50.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…2998backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…e3fabacked Yes | 26c | 49.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 44.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…bba0backed No | 74c | 27.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 18.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?this page
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.