Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e517875e9484038d5c42ebcf2313981636b53bae72c84ede8a9a9b263706cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 4c | 3,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…25a4backed Yes | 2c | 2,800$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 26c | 899.98$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 31c | 511.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.58 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 28c | 380$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 374.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 275.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…148dbacked Yes | 21c | 232.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81d…7447backed Yes | 39c | 207.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 10c | 205$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…fdd3backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…9667backed No | 73c | 177.63$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 165.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…cb00backed No | 64c | 154.46$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 30c | 146.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 33c | 142.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 124.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…0d4cbacked Yes | 40c | 124.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…7916backed Yes | 33c | 115.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed Yes | 36c | 110.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed Yes | 40c | 103.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 61c | 101.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 94.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 23c | 89.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 58c | 89.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 24c | 89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 76c | 89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 29c | 85.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 22c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 31c | 83.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 77.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 73.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 31c | 71.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…4687backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 69c | 61.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…3401backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54cc…1689backed Yes | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…4039backed Yes | 47c | 47.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 43.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 43.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 43.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…18dfbacked Yes | 39c | 38.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 35.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e12…9ba1backed Yes | 44c | 33.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3bbebacked Yes | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 69c | 27.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…269abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1083…be16backed Yes | 56c | 19.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…e900backed Yes | 63c | 16.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 68c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0ec4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?this page
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.