Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x220f52561358dac152990b5674e447a4a2297528083ebd011138963d95daec74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 27c | 712.06$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 73c | 685.28$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.94 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 27c | 282.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 17c | 277.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…148dbacked Yes | 12c | 270.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 239.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 11c | 226.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…7de7backed Yes | 39c | 202.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 21c | 199.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 26c | 188.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…e6c0backed Yes | 32c | 174.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81d…7447backed Yes | 32c | 156.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 27c | 155$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed Yes | 28c | 145.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 129.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 65c | 117.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 28c | 116$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 11c | 108.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 25c | 100.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…e900backed Yes | 32c | 92.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 89.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 23c | 89.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54cc…1689backed Yes | 34c | 72.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed Yes | 26c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…ad99backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0ec4backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 72c | 64.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124d…77f6backed Yes | 28c | 60.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…9924backed Yes | 28c | 54.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 54.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…d6c1backed Yes | 27c | 49.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…3c8ebacked Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 30.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked No | 72c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 73c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…e118backed No | 79c | 24.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…cb00backed No | 72c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?this page
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
- Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.