TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Upof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,190 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5fda…01d5backed Down24c3,567$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.561040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…102cbacked Down32c3,332$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc0…d2cebacked Up76c1,729$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Down27c1,358$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.473627.8%10 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x93c2…08e0backed Down31c1,323$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb513…b9a6backed Up69c1,282$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed Down27c1,076$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.667346.6%34 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b45…077ebacked Up67c1,026$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8135…24fdbacked Up79c991.91$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f1…65c4backed Up77c977.8$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7a…86cfbacked Up70c959.13$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.15966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Down13c933.74$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.46841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a78…9d9dbacked Up72c920.02$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Down21c891.91$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.31010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-78.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969a…1652backed Up73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57b…8281backed Down31c679.1$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Up75c673$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.251643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Down7c637.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ed…105abacked Up79c634.72$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.08825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7bd…ebcebacked Up68c626.86$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27d4…716ebacked Up69c579.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Down21c555$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.551010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-84.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Down24c528.79$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.564714.9%7 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Down3c514$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93640%0 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b8…c5debacked Up71c423.9$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd80…4053backed Down26c382.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Up75c335$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc49…c871backed Down28c323.85$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd54f…c73ebacked Down10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bbe…41afbacked Down26c280.85$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5035…df83backed Up72c278.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Down26c266.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.28825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919c…b114backed Up78c263.7$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+80.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7623…6cb6backed Up69c251.93$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26f…7e32backed Down30c245.32$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…8fccbacked Down41c234.78$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…c9fbbacked Down9c226$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.69633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Up68c199.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+202.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf479…fcc1backed Up71c197.68$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Up71c190.14$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Down17c178.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.364548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfaf3…bc25backed Up68c152.43$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa879…d9d8backed Up72c138.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c3…d769backed Up75c133.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f2…8914backed Up78c128.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac82…ab71backed Down8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8edd…dd3abacked Down27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…2860backed Down22c108.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Up77c105.53$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.143046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-31.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0028…564bbacked Down32c105.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8c…9309backed Up70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x834b…089abacked Up75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1a…c7b1backed Down25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Up65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Down15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-53.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x652b…f5c2backed Down30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30c…6509backed Up71c97.19$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca2…fa31backed Up68c88.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d8…c809backed Up71c78.57$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccc9…39e4backed Down31c75.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8a…bab5backed Down30c71.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x830f…cda7backed Up71c70.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe547…5abfbacked Up78c67.95$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fa…140bbacked Down30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98f…0290backed Down32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Up65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4368…ce70backed Up67c59.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf259…eb1abacked Up70c57.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e12…2440backed Down35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8950…e8b3backed Up71c53.52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67f…a928backed Down30c52.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Up59c52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.323339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked Up69c51.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.931118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Down29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802e…4841backed Up71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c17…a609backed Down30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked Up70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df2…68e7backed Down23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5409…9dcdbacked Up71c49.84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7437…6e31backed Up69c49.84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Down28c49.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1470%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Down29c48.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Up72c45.01$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62030%6 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x016c…b25fbacked Down33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec60…9423backed Up71c42.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73bd…1d46backed Up71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d48…678cbacked Up76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd677…aa0ebacked Up75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106100%6 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+68.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0815…1dc5backed Up75c39.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c1…9c63backed Up68c38.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c5…42a1backed Up73c34.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Up70c34.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffec…7e4abacked Up68c32.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d89…9685backed Up71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27d0…350abacked Up71c27.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x318e…9893backed Up71c26.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…e3a2backed Up77c24.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a7…45aabacked Up76c21.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa1…bf72backed Up65c21.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Up75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55721.1%12 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.