IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44d12f3174382fe2fa1ea6a9dd81b773782abef51077d878b54750ddd3eb4d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Down | 24c | 3,567$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…102cbacked Down | 32c | 3,332$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…d2cebacked Up | 76c | 1,729$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Down | 27c | 1,358$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.47 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…08e0backed Down | 31c | 1,323$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…b9a6backed Up | 69c | 1,282$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Down | 27c | 1,076$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.66 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…077ebacked Up | 67c | 1,026$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8135…24fdbacked Up | 79c | 991.91$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f1…65c4backed Up | 77c | 977.8$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Up | 70c | 959.13$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Down | 13c | 933.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a78…9d9dbacked Up | 72c | 920.02$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Down | 21c | 891.91$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…1652backed Up | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…8281backed Down | 31c | 679.1$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Up | 75c | 673$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Down | 7c | 637.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…105abacked Up | 79c | 634.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked Up | 68c | 626.86$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d4…716ebacked Up | 69c | 579.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Down | 21c | 555$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Down | 24c | 528.79$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.56 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Down | 3c | 514$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…c5debacked Up | 71c | 423.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…4053backed Down | 26c | 382.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Up | 75c | 335$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…c871backed Down | 28c | 323.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd54f…c73ebacked Down | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked Down | 26c | 280.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5035…df83backed Up | 72c | 278.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Down | 26c | 266.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919c…b114backed Up | 78c | 263.7$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…6cb6backed Up | 69c | 251.93$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…7e32backed Down | 30c | 245.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…8fccbacked Down | 41c | 234.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…c9fbbacked Down | 9c | 226$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Up | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…fcc1backed Up | 71c | 197.68$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Up | 71c | 190.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Down | 17c | 178.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…bc25backed Up | 68c | 152.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa879…d9d8backed Up | 72c | 138.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…d769backed Up | 75c | 133.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…8914backed Up | 78c | 128.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac82…ab71backed Down | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edd…dd3abacked Down | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…2860backed Down | 22c | 108.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Up | 77c | 105.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0028…564bbacked Down | 32c | 105.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…9309backed Up | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…089abacked Up | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…c7b1backed Down | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Up | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Down | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Down | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Up | 71c | 97.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Up | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…c809backed Up | 71c | 78.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…39e4backed Down | 31c | 75.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8a…bab5backed Down | 30c | 71.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…cda7backed Up | 71c | 70.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…5abfbacked Up | 78c | 67.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fa…140bbacked Down | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98f…0290backed Down | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Up | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4368…ce70backed Up | 67c | 59.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…eb1abacked Up | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…2440backed Down | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8950…e8b3backed Up | 71c | 53.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…a928backed Down | 30c | 52.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Up | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Up | 69c | 51.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Down | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802e…4841backed Up | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c17…a609backed Down | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked Up | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…68e7backed Down | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…9dcdbacked Up | 71c | 49.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Up | 69c | 49.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Down | 28c | 49.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Down | 29c | 48.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Up | 72c | 45.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…b25fbacked Down | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec60…9423backed Up | 71c | 42.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…1d46backed Up | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Up | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Up | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…1dc5backed Up | 75c | 39.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…9c63backed Up | 68c | 38.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…42a1backed Up | 73c | 34.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Up | 70c | 34.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7e4abacked Up | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…9685backed Up | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…350abacked Up | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318e…9893backed Up | 71c | 26.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…e3a2backed Up | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…45aabacked Up | 76c | 21.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa1…bf72backed Up | 65c | 21.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Up | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.