MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44eadfffa32972468fe521bd094c91ef5d2eb4190f2c7caf528c984ad734b89f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 43c | 16,537$7,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,110.86 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over | 57c | 12,046$6,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200.23 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 5,834$3,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 44c | 5,682$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 2,907$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.06 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Over | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 57c | 2,103$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.35 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 1,303$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 53c | 1,111$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.17 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 57c | 1,024$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.32 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 781$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Over | 55c | 660$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.05 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 42c | 597.71$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.04 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 58c | 520$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 56c | 516.5$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.26 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 498$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 417.9$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 57c | 291$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 58c | 285.71$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 54c | 224$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 38c | 195$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Under | 43c | 170.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 18c | 167.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Under | 44c | 155.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 48c | 142.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Over | 57c | 130.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 124$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 102.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 75c | 97.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 87.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…6c53backed Over | 57c | 78.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 23c | 70.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 44c | 68.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 44c | 63.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 56c | 63.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e2…3ba7backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 53c | 47.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…3a55backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 35c | 41.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Over | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a13…c9f8backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Under | 49c | 30.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 43c | 28.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 57c | 21.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…b01fbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.