MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c86bfa33b04fb90e1f222cc3e8582cc8332f39a4abf69431cdba8f6ffae24d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 53c | 53,691$28,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,456.23 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 47c | 52,180$24,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,655.21 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 55c | 25,000$13,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,649.96 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 13,243$5,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,281.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 4,168$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.48 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 3,062$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.27 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 2,346$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.86 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 1,053$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 949.07$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.99 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Over | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 600$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 360$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 50c | 294$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 42c | 272.29$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 52c | 238.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 47c | 212$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 46c | 211.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Over | 48c | 202.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 147.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Under | 44c | 141.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 50c | 127.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 58c | 121.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 49c | 114.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…5648backed Over | 47c | 106.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 85.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 46c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 70c | 76.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 56c | 73.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 17c | 61.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 50c | 61.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 50c | 60.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 59.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 46c | 57.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 47c | 45.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 53c | 44.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 50c | 40.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 43c | 39.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 49c | 36.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Over | 52c | 31.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 54c | 30.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Over | 47c | 30.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 26.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 26.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…d0eebacked Over | 46c | 22.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.