MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4533809675927b52515babe6030836c7c5cc4fbbdce2f267820b8e35deffb0fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 1,280$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 851.34$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 782.55$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 747$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.55 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 600.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.3 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 426.32$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.69 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 24c | 408.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 21c | 371.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 290.15$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…e1d4backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 183.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 155$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 140.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 139.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 119.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 28c | 103.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 83.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 83.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 59.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Washington Nationals | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 51.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 78c | 43.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 36.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 23.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -12.1wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ca…870dbacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.