MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd27c9d55052f20fa01d67bd18a35cb1b03a56445f12ee61dc023a671be822066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 1,947$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 1,806$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.08 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 72c | 877.11$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 863.92$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 758.62$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.62 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 626.25$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 600.62$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 476.66$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 429.29$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.21 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 429.29$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.21 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 397.3$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.3 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 203.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 194.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 175.72$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.52 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 161.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 160.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 148.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 148.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3f2cbacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 137$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…f6f6backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Miami Marlins | 15c | 92.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 88.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 59.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 56.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 47.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 40.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 31.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 24.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -12.1wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 18.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.