MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57774fd4393352ebca329197f2e8232494c1277579556963b87e1fb590586220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 4,460$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 4,361$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.24 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 4,156$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 75c | 1,305$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.53 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,123$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 25c | 890.43$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 419.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 416.91$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.58 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 348.17$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…c130backed Washington Nationals | 21c | 326.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Washington Nationals | 17c | 323.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 298.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 209.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Washington Nationals | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Washington Nationals | 22c | 166.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 162.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Washington Nationals | 33c | 130.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Washington Nationals | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 25c | 109.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 92.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 85.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals | 26c | 73.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 66.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 62.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 31.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 26.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…a861backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.