MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac9bb447940d36baf33b69a8d013428cb4d16a3206879f8315222eb16c273c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 56c | 8,906$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 6,819$4,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.21 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 2,770$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.68 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 45c | 2,066$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 52c | 929.14$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.54 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 44c | 599.01$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.45 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…56c0backed Over | 55c | 355.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.4 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 55c | 249.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 52c | 226.12$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 44c | 198.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.36 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 171$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 50c | 148.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Under | 50c | 148.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 50c | 145.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 113.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 113.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 101.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 93.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 55c | 93.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 90.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Under | 69c | 79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 74.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 43c | 73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 45c | 72.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…b90dbacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 44c | 66.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 65.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 64.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 71c | 59.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 49c | 59.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…7dddbacked Over | 54c | 52.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 47.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 44.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 55c | 42.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 55c | 40.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 35.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 45c | 30.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 55c | 26.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 53.6%97 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…8baebacked Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Over | 50c | 23.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 199 | 60.3%120 W · 79 L | +21.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 56c | 22.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…26bcbacked Over | 54c | 20.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.