South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4553c02d77d7a22319be8f4023badca641d5f5ef16d0baa9f0f4cf87b2b2e120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Over | 31c | 30,000$9,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,298.38 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 12,054$8,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,736.86 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 7,254$5,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.79 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Under | 72c | 2,020$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.52 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…9f79backed Under | 72c | 1,500$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,380$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.44 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 21c | 1,248$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.42 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 655.66$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.26 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 69c | 605.89$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.36 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 69c | 588.33$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.6 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 18c | 568.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 74c | 381.88$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 69c | 370.79$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 69c | 304.89$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.72 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 29c | 299.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e3…934abacked Over | 21c | 274.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…856abacked Under | 79c | 274.8$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 78c | 263.95$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 23c | 232.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 33c | 212.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 70c | 161.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 160$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…3918backed Under | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…a3b6backed Under | 79c | 126.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 17c | 124.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 12c | 119.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 71c | 117.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 20c | 104.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…266ebacked Under | 71c | 102.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 17c | 91.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…0b9cbacked Over | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Under | 71c | 86.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 16c | 80.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 77c | 65.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 23c | 64.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Under | 73c | 54.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 74c | 48.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 23c | 46.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 80c | 40.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 71c | 29.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Under | 76c | 29.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 77c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 73c | 23.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 73c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Under | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Under | 74c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed Under | 69c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…c637backed Under | 70c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Under | 69c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 71c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed Under | 70c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Under | 79c | 14.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…64fdbacked Under | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5this page
- CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.