Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x456d03f66a62dddce58a7f1e50b3772c2fd0120555ee3d06ef61662433994259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 30c | 12,896$3,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,924.62 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 8,522$6,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.8 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 9c | 5,196$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.61 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 13c | 4,104$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 67c | 3,706$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.08 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 3,662$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.34 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 29c | 2,242$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 70c | 1,994$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.33 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 72c | 1,823$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.56 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 19c | 1,609$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.49 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 70c | 1,311$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.3 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 23c | 1,056$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 70c | 834.42$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.33 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 809.75$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.98 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 22c | 742.59$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Over | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…78ffbacked Under | 77c | 555.62$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 69c | 496.24$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.83 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 25c | 445.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…194dbacked Over | 24c | 442.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Over | 10c | 426.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 30c | 389.3$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Over | 10c | 351.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 27c | 291.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Under | 65c | 275.43$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 33c | 271.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 9c | 263.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 32c | 240$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…4fd9backed Over | 6c | 192.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 18c | 172$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 71c | 148.45$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 144.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 79c | 144.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…df82backed Under | 72c | 138.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Over | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Over | 10c | 118$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 28c | 107.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Under | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Over | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 32c | 99.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 16c | 95.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 21c | 93.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 71c | 84.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 27c | 75.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 22c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 67c | 40.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 69c | 39.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Under | 69c | 36.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…2241backed Under | 71c | 35.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…a1f2backed Under | 71c | 32.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…23f2backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…0e72backed Under | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 71c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Under | 71c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 74c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…e0c9backed Under | 71c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.