MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4577d469537ba1aa6c0d24d314de621031b3439f60c26658f9b9199d84200b63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 73c | 10,084$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,683.69 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 8,807$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.79 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 51c | 3,402$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.79 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 1,520$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 50c | 1,260$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.79 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,155$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.44 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Over | 8c | 642.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 618.71$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.6 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 50c | 599.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.63 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 49c | 509.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.09 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 499.64$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.81 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Under | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.8wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 38c | 230.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 153.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 124.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 62c | 107.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 61c | 102.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 99.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed Over | 73c | 99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 95.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 29c | 82.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 64.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 57c | 59.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed Under | 73c | 55.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 52c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…f13cbacked Over | 29c | 41.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 32c | 39.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 39c | 33.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Under | 37c | 31.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 34c | 30.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 64c | 29.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 29.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 62c | 22.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 55c | 18.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-5.5)New York Yankees won
- Texas Rangers vs. New York YankeesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.