TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, New York Yankees
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,055 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked New York Yankees63c45,000$28,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,499.9577053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Texas Rangers38c30,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,599.9355053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Texas Rangers39c26,190$10,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,976.1998149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees40c16,530$6,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,566.0910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Yankees64c11,432$7,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,316.481,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked New York Yankees46c10,348$4,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,807.811,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Texas Rangers36c10,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,40060451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Texas Rangers37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,30011952.9%63 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Texas Rangers36c9,986$3,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,417.541,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x74cb…afe6backed New York Yankees64c7,092$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,550.41450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Yankees63c6,996$4,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,407.491,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Texas Rangers36c6,500$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,16024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Texas Rangers39c5,340$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,242.862,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed New York Yankees61c5,066$3,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,090.7455052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Texas Rangers36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.9544945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees34c4,968$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.248,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers43c4,953$2,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.2611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Texas Rangers37c4,822$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.0150153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked New York Yankees43c3,982$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.1810544.8%47 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked New York Yankees5c3,905$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1911125.2%28 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed New York Yankees63c3,527$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,22213655.1%75 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed New York Yankees61c3,278$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.571,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees62c3,062$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.74,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Texas Rangers54c3,060$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.291,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed New York Yankees64c3,046$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.811,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed New York Yankees63c2,924$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.0577951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Texas Rangers39c2,904$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.551,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed New York Yankees4c2,524$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016814.3%24 W · 144 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked New York Yankees4c2,227$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5510719.6%21 W · 86 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed New York Yankees65c2,226$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.7626245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees62c2,105$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.275,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd3…fed4backed New York Yankees62c1,923$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005959.3%35 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees20c1,885$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.0312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Texas Rangers39c1,652$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.554152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked New York Yankees62c1,618$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.4412754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked New York Yankees51c1,618$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.248850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa6…42c3backed New York Yankees62c1,612$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.485253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed New York Yankees63c1,587$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9838444.3%170 W · 214 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Texas Rangers35c1,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97561947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Texas Rangers36c1,500$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96044451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed New York Yankees62c1,200$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74425240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Texas Rangers36c1,180$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.691,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked New York Yankees22c1,178$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1779147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Texas Rangers38c997.35$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.3659549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees65c978.84$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.872,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Texas Rangers55c875.6$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.9150860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees25c859.58$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.989,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed New York Yankees62c823.36$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.4843253.9%233 W · 199 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Yankees43c821.4$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.562,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Texas Rangers73c790$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.447589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked New York Yankees29c775.86$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2259846.9%46 W · 52 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked New York Yankees62c755.13$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.18875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+97.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Texas Rangers35c737.98$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.696855.9%38 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Texas Rangers54c713.45$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.9357758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Texas Rangers39c694.74$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.791,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked New York Yankees7c688.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2133515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Texas Rangers38c675$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.2577050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Texas Rangers36c644$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.161,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed New York Yankees8c634.34$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0899744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed New York Yankees2c618.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed New York Yankees62c602.23$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.3839640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked New York Yankees65c600$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed New York Yankees61c599.37$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.623265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.5wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed New York Yankees65c542.99$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.9440645.1%183 W · 223 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed New York Yankees33c523.35$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.0870546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57f3…4fcfbacked New York Yankees41c517.13$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21017954.2%97 W · 82 L-0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee3…cab9backed New York Yankees20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016232.1%52 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed New York Yankees61c500$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.66446.9%30 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed New York Yankees54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27026857.8%155 W · 113 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Texas Rangers55c500$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.631,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked New York Yankees24c469.54$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5960941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed New York Yankees64c465.17$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.8220258.4%118 W · 84 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4957…ef96backed New York Yankees65c461.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003850%19 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Texas Rangers72c439.11$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.951,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Yankees62c403.23$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd0…2222backed New York Yankees27c401.52$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11011346.9%53 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1182…fc5dbacked New York Yankees5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Texas Rangers36c400$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2581,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed New York Yankees5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Texas Rangers39c397.27$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.335742.1%24 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers68c393.07$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.764,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked New York Yankees15c390$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.770450.1%353 W · 351 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed New York Yankees17c373.79$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6288046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked New York Yankees33c372.13$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2315243.4%66 W · 86 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees13c370.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.428,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked New York Yankees62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016159.6%96 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14de…414ebacked New York Yankees63c317.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016056.9%91 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa564…e6f3backed Texas Rangers39c307.69$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.691643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a2…3c41backed New York Yankees65c306.15$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19915857%90 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked New York Yankees47c304$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8822831.6%72 W · 156 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Texas Rangers37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18948354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53cd…11b3backed New York Yankees34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10211134.2%38 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked New York Yankees56c300$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16716132.3%52 W · 109 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Texas Rangers35c299.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1953,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Texas Rangers34c287$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.4244643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6f…be20backed New York Yankees53c281.7$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8823454.7%128 W · 106 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Texas Rangers36c271$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.231,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed New York Yankees53c263$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5878649.1%386 W · 400 L+3.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Texas Rangers71c258.39$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.681,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadf3…101fbacked Texas Rangers36c258.3$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.3133241.3%137 W · 195 L+1.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.