Lol · resolved market
MSI Playoffs: Anyone's Legend vs. FlyQuest
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4579830a53e01ca7591347cc163863a4b438c3e2ffdc0df567a7e883a59e6972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Legendof Legend, FlyQuest
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked FlyQuest | 13c | 12,315$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.9 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed FlyQuest | 19c | 11,666$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.39 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…e8e4backed Legend | 74c | 9,354$6,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.7 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed FlyQuest | 32c | 8,000$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.99 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -18.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed FlyQuest | 10c | 7,148$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.14 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked FlyQuest | 12c | 5,179$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.43 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…ae6ebacked FlyQuest | 22c | 4,916$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Legend | 76c | 4,465$3,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.82 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed FlyQuest | 18c | 3,797$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.72 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked FlyQuest | 17c | 2,369$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed FlyQuest | 12c | 1,849$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed FlyQuest | 13c | 1,521$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed FlyQuest | 12c | 1,110$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d5…54c7backed FlyQuest | 12c | 1,005$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…d776backed Legend | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked FlyQuest | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 508 | 48.4%246 W · 262 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Legend | 77c | 920.13$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.73 | 600 | 53.2%319 W · 281 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…b2cfbacked FlyQuest | 14c | 897.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…ac2bbacked Legend | 76c | 820$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked FlyQuest | 30c | 784.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad2…c594backed Legend | 69c | 633.58$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Legend | 78c | 598.25$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Legend | 80c | 553.09$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…57d4backed Legend | 75c | 530.88$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed FlyQuest | 23c | 529.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed FlyQuest | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed FlyQuest | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 484 | 48.6%235 W · 249 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed FlyQuest | 11c | 459.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 525 | 38.9%204 W · 321 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked FlyQuest | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed FlyQuest | 13c | 350$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked FlyQuest | 14c | 329.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed FlyQuest | 12c | 329.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…0777backed Legend | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…1218backed FlyQuest | 24c | 297$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed FlyQuest | 9c | 281$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed FlyQuest | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 302 | 43%130 W · 172 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…a7d4backed FlyQuest | 30c | 168.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed FlyQuest | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72c…4b39backed FlyQuest | 16c | 135.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…3ea6backed FlyQuest | 14c | 124.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed FlyQuest | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 538 | 29.4%158 W · 380 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Legend | 80c | 109.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 174 | 66.7%116 W · 58 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Legend | 68c | 107.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -11.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked FlyQuest | 16c | 106.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked FlyQuest | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 106 | 16%17 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Legend | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed FlyQuest | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 541 | 29.9%162 W · 379 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…4b9fbacked Legend | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec2…cb66backed Legend | 79c | 50.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…ab8fbacked FlyQuest | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Legend | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Legend | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Legend | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…bd70backed Legend | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.