TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,044

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,273 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins32c2,233$722 inLost-$722.2710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves68c2,206$1,500 inWon+$705.881,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Atlanta Braves19c827.68$161 inWon+$666.8812128.1%34 W · 87 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins65c498.44$324 inLost-$324.49,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves36c391.08$142 inWon+$249.493,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Atlanta Braves18c354.41$65 inWon+$289.4129344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves35c250.7$88 inWon+$162.764,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins62c199.46$123 inLost-$123.22,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Atlanta Braves33c169.56$56 inWon+$113.5626747.9%128 W · 139 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Atlanta Braves16c93.06$15 inWon+$78.5299624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves21c81.59$17 inWon+$64.558,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Atlanta Braves18c74.89$13 inWon+$61.4129553.2%157 W · 138 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves37c55$20 inWon+$34.826,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked Miami Marlins76c48.56$37 inLost-$36.754235.7%15 W · 27 L-7.8wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-37.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Miami Marlins41c37.7$16 inLost-$15.541,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ded…3350backed Miami Marlins65c21.53$14 inLost-$148140.7%33 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins77c17.68$14 inLost-$13.5812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.