MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x998744bd9fcc5c9c2b4cbf6686391a5f32ba169530dfb9965bab8e2ab91b0214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 45c | 7,526$3,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,169.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 5,831$3,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,283.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 1,664$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 1,415$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 1,304$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.86 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 1,227$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 946.22$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 470.94$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 466$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 382.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.41 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…804abacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 293.1$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 194$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 174$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 154.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 146.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 52c | 133.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…0690backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 131.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 130.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 123.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 95.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 82.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 74.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Miami Marlins | 73c | 72.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 70.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 65.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 49c | 55.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 52.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 52.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 48.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 47.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 42.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…a411backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 35.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 34.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…8a98backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 34.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…f8c7backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 34.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 34.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 33.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 32.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 30.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Atlanta Braves | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…16cebacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 16.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.