MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7548404a3e0718814ae3b03856c70334e4483e358c54797e323d2489d66659a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 3,392$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.23 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 3,016$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.08 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Under | 49c | 2,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.99 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,786$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.3 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 1,638$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.91 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 1,216$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.17 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.69 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 46c | 962.09$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.56 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…998dbacked Under | 25c | 786.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 65c | 774.08$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.63 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 470.81$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.43 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 55c | 286.91$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 269.5$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 53c | 232.01$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 37c | 220.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.05 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…804abacked Under | 53c | 208.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Over | 33c | 160$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 34c | 143$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 55c | 118.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 107.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…30e2backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 106.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 103.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 78.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 53c | 65.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Over | 50c | 55.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 58c | 51.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Over | 50c | 49.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Under | 59c | 40.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 54c | 39.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 54c | 38.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 38c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 51c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 59c | 24.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Under | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.