MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe3db05c2394cb3232ccfd2b7ff04275b0b4ccd307e8fd4b04cff3df82ae8fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 10,706$5,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,185.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 49c | 9,493$4,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,841.43 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Under | 50c | 5,900$2,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.93 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 50c | 3,137$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.36 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 3,102$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.09 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Under | 48c | 1,740$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.79 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 1,555$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.4 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 52c | 1,480$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.4 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked Over | 49c | 1,449$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.98 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,449$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 35c | 1,364$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.43 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 51c | 1,333$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.62 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 50c | 1,182$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,043$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.64 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 50c | 1,040$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 988.97$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 50c | 962.87$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.03 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 673.08$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 51c | 576.79$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.16 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 400$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 72c | 395.01$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 329.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 52c | 307.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Over | 50c | 224.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 206.46$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Over | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 77c | 186.53$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 30c | 171.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 20c | 163.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 128.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 119.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 42c | 118.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 73c | 113.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 51c | 99.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Over | 50c | 98.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 20c | 78.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 80c | 61.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 24c | 57.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…7de0backed Under | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 70c | 55.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 46.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 24c | 46.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…555bbacked Under | 49c | 45.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 45.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 62c | 45.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 51c | 41.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Over | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 32c | 37.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked Under | 51c | 34.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 51c | 34.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff6…1fd0backed Over | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…804abacked Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 76c | 28.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 26.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 25.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 66c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 68c | 15.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…16cebacked Over | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.