MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45af286d6f5913032e9a05c648bf8015f5f4824cc8655b4e93632f5455955915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 54c | 16,495$8,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,606.61 | 441 | 54.2%239 W · 202 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 11,732$5,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,396.84 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 57c | 7,810$4,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375.82 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 43c | 3,969$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 2,626$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.74 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 2,026$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 1,657$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.37 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 781.65$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.37 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 777$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.42 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 55c | 748.32$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.53 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…01e6backed Over | 57c | 641.61$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 43c | 575.93$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.65 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 149.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 139$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 55c | 119.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed Under | 16c | 117.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 53c | 114$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 366 | 50.8%186 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 75.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…d492backed Over | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 46c | 60.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 56.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 43c | 46.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 45c | 44.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 56c | 37.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 57c | 36.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Under | 45c | 35.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 57c | 27.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis CardinalsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.