TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,721
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$166,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,721 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Over45c80,000$36,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,999.9855253.1%293 W · 259 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under55c74,241$40,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,832.771,41449.5%700 W · 714 L-4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under54c19,219$10,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,470.4110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9f…0eaebacked Under50c19,019$9,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,591.861250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under54c15,818$8,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,620.2411,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over45c15,555$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,555.256365.1%41 W · 22 L+9.3wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+29.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under56c9,170$5,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,135.21,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over44c9,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0401855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Over46c8,104$3,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,376.1622447.3%106 W · 118 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Over45c8,046$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,445.5447745.7%218 W · 259 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under56c7,312$4,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,079.221,38650.6%702 W · 684 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over44c5,636$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,136.3638453.6%206 W · 178 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over50c3,102$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.066,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over46c2,980$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.286,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over49c2,773$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.261,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Over49c2,501$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.5134353.4%183 W · 160 L+18.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under52c2,407$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.494,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over47c2,057$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.511,63549.3%806 W · 829 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over50c2,048$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0242,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Over47c2,000$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07013458.2%78 W · 56 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Over46c1,897$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.3532552.9%172 W · 153 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Over48c1,839$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.273855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under56c1,702$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.951,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over50c1,650$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.258,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under54c1,644$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.7636648.9%179 W · 187 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under53c1,336$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.8245451.3%233 W · 221 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under50c1,010$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.868652.9%363 W · 323 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Over40c999.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9912264.8%79 W · 43 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over46c956$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.251,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Over46c888.45$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.7657053.3%304 W · 266 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under54c888$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.5287453%463 W · 411 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under54c753.74$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.061,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over51c571.37$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.971,73749.1%852 W · 885 L+7.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2470…dc4dbacked Under53c562.53$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.995554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under60c555$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33312,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Under57c509$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1333649.1%165 W · 171 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Over48c416.47$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.4248150.7%244 W · 237 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over45c400$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2225,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under52c394.12$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9423548.9%115 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over51c392.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.152,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over45c390$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.52951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Over47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1593644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under55c286.31$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4752752.2%275 W · 252 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Over44c268$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.083565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Over47c265.96$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9628452.5%149 W · 135 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over50c256$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12813853.6%74 W · 64 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe044…019abacked Over73c244.14$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+88.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over53c236$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.628,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under54c232.54$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.334,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Over45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2217752.5%93 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Under55c218.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,20149.1%590 W · 611 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016246.3%75 W · 87 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fca…3487backed Over51c195.1$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.62259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over49c155$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.759,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Over51c152.06$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5141048.3%198 W · 212 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over44c149.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.52,41349.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over45c149.1$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4110148.5%49 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over46c148.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.192,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under42c137$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.544820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-3.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Over46c129$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.666453.1%34 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe66f…0f3ebacked Over50c124.08$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.044858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b23…6b2bbacked Over44c120$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed Under53c106$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.181631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-48.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5299947.5%475 W · 524 L-3.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Over46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5413447%63 W · 71 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,19429%346 W · 848 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over50c84.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5388656.4%500 W · 386 L+30.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over50c84.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1567653.1%359 W · 317 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over50c79.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.552,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over44c78.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4267152.5%352 W · 319 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Under51c76.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.511,17643.8%515 W · 661 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba5e…153bbacked Over47c67.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.813553.3%72 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Over49c65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2639049%191 W · 199 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7f…d002backed Over51c59.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.084553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Over55c58.83$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6924250%121 W · 121 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde36…f41cbacked Over44c56.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3616643.4%72 W · 94 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Over43c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3547552%247 W · 228 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Under55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042849.1%210 W · 218 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570b…0bfebacked Over45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Under56c49.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9132846.6%153 W · 175 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under56c49.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.911,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Over46c45.59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6231354.6%171 W · 142 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba85…719cbacked Over51c44.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.95475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+67.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Under56c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560049.3%296 W · 304 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad90…1012backed Over48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.673554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Under50c40.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2074143.5%322 W · 419 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x641d…eeedbacked Under54c34.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.836552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under55c34.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.981,27857%728 W · 550 L+33.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over44c34.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.222,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Over49c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3433352.3%174 W · 159 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x657c…66a3backed Over44c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.489255.4%51 W · 41 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13b8…2348backed Over48c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+135.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8599…ad67backed Over52c32.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.433847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3ae…d117backed Under48c32.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4314849.3%73 W · 75 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over71c31.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.258,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Over50c31.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7534355.4%190 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over48c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1212340.7%50 W · 73 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over47c30.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3961652.8%325 W · 291 L+31.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b04…403fbacked Under53c30.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.397343.8%32 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x546a…1988backed Under55c29.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.244542.2%19 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.