Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45dbcb71672d06d3926d94025fb33c5c7930622b7beaae35cd5abb120319106b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 22c | 1,209$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.9 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 1,027$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.06 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 552.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.57 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 391$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 362.81$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 31c | 324.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 275.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 268.37$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 260.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 233.25$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 226.21$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 30c | 213.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 24c | 193.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 190.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 168.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 72c | 166$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 23c | 139.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 128.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 20c | 120.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 104.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…ff2fbacked Yes | 19c | 102.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 100.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 97.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 89.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…c74ebacked Yes | 19c | 89.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 24c | 83.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 23c | 83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 82.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 77c | 82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…572abacked Yes | 17c | 79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 77.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 19c | 77.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 52.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 79c | 47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 38.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 75c | 34.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 23.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 22.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 20.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 16.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…b93cbacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.