Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cf8864beaa94a596255a1aab87fedb8e4218d85f68cf017f6fda73f2ebe6022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969c…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +581.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,504$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 62c | 701.26$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.32 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 604.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 74c | 527.34$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.95 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 272.74$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 238.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 221.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 48c | 210.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 199.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 188.63$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 47c | 177.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 68c | 147.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 33c | 127.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 103.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 35c | 103.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 100.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 48c | 96.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 96.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 96.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…3122backed Yes | 49c | 93.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 49c | 90.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 44c | 89.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 82.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 79.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 52c | 77.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 64c | 76.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 51c | 73.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 59c | 71.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 67.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 42c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 57c | 52.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 70c | 49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 49c | 48.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 71c | 47.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 52c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 57c | 44.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 52c | 41.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 40.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 40.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 65c | 38.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 48c | 36.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked No | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 31.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 49c | 30.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 26.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 25.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 65c | 25.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 52c | 25.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.