MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4624c5a574ca94d1ed48c294bf008825f74567d9bfb09d3f890d7b46dfbf24cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 1c | 1,894$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 59c | 1,557$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 1,523$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.73 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 3c | 1,125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 3c | 1,125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 9c | 1,078$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 55c | 1,053$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.15 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 41c | 837.8$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.3 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 56c | 789.39$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 617$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.52 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 42c | 538.02$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.05 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 463.04$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 44c | 342$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.06 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 336.58$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 304.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 25c | 289.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 56c | 275$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 44c | 221.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 40c | 199.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 174.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 73c | 166.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 73c | 137.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f5…c385backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 53c | 104.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 33c | 103.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 30c | 84.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…d7a0backed Over | 45c | 84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Over | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 70c | 44.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 55c | 36.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 36.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 34c | 31.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Under | 55c | 27.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 57c | 27.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 40c | 26.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 46c | 24.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 43c | 23.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.