MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46294186d93cce2e31b77d0d9bfe383cf1f27e1c7748d604f273692a63ed0636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 11,415$6,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,113.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 7,557$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 2,508$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 2,104$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 1,994$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.66 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,725$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 996.28$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.88 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 863.37$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.12 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 663$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 619.74$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.45 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 463.43$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 437.07$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 411$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.4 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 285.71$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 224.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 193.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 68c | 156.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed San Diego Padres | 10c | 142.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 71c | 137.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 124.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 114$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 107.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 106.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 95.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 91.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 81.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 58.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…9b6dbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…8d9cbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 43.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 33.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 33.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 21.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 18.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.