TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lavkedof Lavked, ex-Zero Tenacity
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,376 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Lavked62c9,218$5,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,484.585,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed ex-Zero Tenacity40c7,671$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.3523848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed ex-Zero Tenacity38c6,564$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.8984958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity40c4,540$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.6327552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Lavked60c3,424$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.621668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed ex-Zero Tenacity40c2,546$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.3360248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Lavked62c2,029$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.371,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Lavked59c1,947$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.212,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed ex-Zero Tenacity60c1,694$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.9666851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Lavked63c1,651$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.332,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed ex-Zero Tenacity51c1,259$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.9920562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed ex-Zero Tenacity35c1,180$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41312426.6%33 W · 91 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Lavked61c1,148$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.542,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Lavked65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35026054.2%141 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Lavked61c1,000$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39555843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aae…0da3backed Lavked67c849.99$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.514255.6%79 W · 63 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed ex-Zero Tenacity38c739.25$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.5764854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Lavked40c700$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42094645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity33c552.11$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.21,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Lavked56c526.41$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.442,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-Zero Tenacity39c504.37$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.585,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Lavked62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19064058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ex-Zero Tenacity46c448.67$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.94,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed ex-Zero Tenacity40c441.11$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.2716347.2%77 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d30…11f1backed Lavked49c434.94$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.4616350.3%82 W · 81 L+14.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Lavked59c397.62$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8838848.5%188 W · 200 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed ex-Zero Tenacity40c350$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14014544.8%65 W · 80 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Lavked49c333.68$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.5930254.3%164 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Lavked68c331.08$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0895642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Lavked57c330.78$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.7923072.6%167 W · 63 L+27.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed ex-Zero Tenacity45c322.15$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.344542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Lavked53c315.63$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.595,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Lavked53c283.78$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.472,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Lavked49c279$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.2649143%211 W · 280 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb3c…a471backed ex-Zero Tenacity39c257$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.351258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed ex-Zero Tenacity39c256$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8423146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed ex-Zero Tenacity34c249$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6657641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb897…e44ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014939.6%59 W · 90 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Lavked53c231.25$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.693759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Lavked63c222.22$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.221,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ex-Zero Tenacity39c221.65$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.734,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Lavked48c201$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.631,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Lavked61c200.01$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.82,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…fd36backed Lavked60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8040155.1%221 W · 180 L+1.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked Lavked50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Lavked61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7835861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ex-Zero Tenacity37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed ex-Zero Tenacity39c192.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7515351%78 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Lavked62c187$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.435444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Lavked58c168.13$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.154,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Lavked62c162.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2140449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity60c162$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.34per pick43cpaid-83.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lavked58c157$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.121,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Lavked65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8531451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Lavked33c150.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.083828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Lavked43c150.37$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6923245.3%105 W · 127 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe252…5714backed ex-Zero Tenacity35c142.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9923335.2%82 W · 151 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed ex-Zero Tenacity38c139.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.892,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Lavked61c128.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3174054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity61c126.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2122954.6%125 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Lavked55c123$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5940141.6%167 W · 234 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b4…48dabacked ex-Zero Tenacity58c120.05$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0810942.2%46 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed Lavked62c119.31$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5583856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdac6…f027backed Lavked62c118.76$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…8dccbacked ex-Zero Tenacity38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Lavked59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4126246.9%123 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5a…9ed6backed Lavked66c99.78$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.785362.3%33 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…3518backed Lavked62c92.79$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356253.2%33 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x467e…4a19backed ex-Zero Tenacity36c92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.124452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d9…c572backed Lavked44c90.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9118750.8%95 W · 92 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed Lavked62c86.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8537855.3%209 W · 169 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f6…af63backed ex-Zero Tenacity47c85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.811735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Lavked59c82$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5467750.2%340 W · 337 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Lavked61c81.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9420046%92 W · 108 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa03c…f557backed Lavked62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.657251.4%37 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Lavked60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3291648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed ex-Zero Tenacity39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.220047.5%95 W · 105 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb676…2dbbbacked ex-Zero Tenacity38c77.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013954%75 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b84…e88cbacked Lavked34c70$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.24440.9%18 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a5c…cfa8backed Lavked53c68.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.231978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+31.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6d0…85e6backed Lavked44c68.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.421675%12 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+49%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Lavked49c63$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1364046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ex-Zero Tenacity48c62.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.874,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52b…9646backed Lavked62c60.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1222059.1%130 W · 90 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Lavked43c59.46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7372139.7%286 W · 435 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed ex-Zero Tenacity20c51.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.511,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lavked55c50.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.723,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lavked48c50.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.047,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Lavked62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1927459.5%163 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked Lavked63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.526448.1%127 W · 137 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2b…70efbacked Lavked62c48.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3912564.8%81 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed ex-Zero Tenacity37c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2899148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba17…5c67backed Lavked62c42.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2419052.6%100 W · 90 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe728…9d87backed ex-Zero Tenacity60c42.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6323150.6%117 W · 114 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf99e…bde6backed Lavked55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1858762.2%365 W · 222 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e09…d784backed Lavked40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Lavked55c35.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.289248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked ex-Zero Tenacity36c35.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8410545.7%48 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Lavked63c35.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0585054.4%462 W · 388 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.