Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x464ef9613c295627c96c40e8052f2bc2437b781a5f592bc54198a2728ade82fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 1,671$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 713.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.88 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…c35fbacked Yes | 16c | 516.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 378.61$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 366.87$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.56 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 297.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 17c | 254.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.15 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 248.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 245.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.63 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 216.32$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 211.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 61c | 185.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 77c | 181.6$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 176.08$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 174.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 174.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 23c | 172.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.39 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 145.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 16c | 121.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 12c | 121$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 118.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 112.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 41c | 111.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 20c | 105.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 79.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked No | 80c | 78.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed Yes | 79c | 76.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Yes | 16c | 73.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 66c | 72.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 63c | 66.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 74c | 63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 27c | 62.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked Yes | 17c | 60.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 58.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 74c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 79c | 31.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 25.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 67c | 21.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0110…af5dbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.