Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x423ff95430c681058d163dc392bb01ae491ede52805aa7897c3b77c7384fec4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 1,461$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 12c | 1,426$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.01 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 24c | 1,327$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.14 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 1,098$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,089$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.15 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 842.58$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.72 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 31c | 395.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 388.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…c35fbacked Yes | 33c | 337.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 303.51$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 280.42$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 225$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 37c | 218.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 213.95$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 212.93$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 205$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 193.82$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 77c | 193.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 176.31$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 147.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 8c | 139.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 129.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 127.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 29c | 119.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 16c | 87.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 86.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 80.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 27c | 74.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 67c | 71.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 67.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 66.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 64.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 41c | 64.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 42c | 62.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 79c | 60.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 60.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 64c | 56.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 55.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…89dabacked Yes | 33c | 54.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 32c | 54.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 70c | 53.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 24c | 52.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 30c | 51.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 27c | 50.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 50.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 63c | 47.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 46.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f9…77f3backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…31cabacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 30c | 38.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 36.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 35.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 61c | 35.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 32.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 37c | 27.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed Yes | 39c | 27.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c0…64fabacked Yes | 36c | 27.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 27.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 69c | 22.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 20.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 18.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.