Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b4c14ec6b6558d68c33cb4eac636d753d67f23675399516c53faaa3d2aa45b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,757$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.51 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 61c | 1,313$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.27 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 63c | 476.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.98 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 391.28$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 389$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 365.46$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…c35fbacked Yes | 54c | 337.73$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 337.46$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 331.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed No | 66c | 303.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 285$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 250$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 202.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 45c | 200.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 36c | 196.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 169.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 164.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 163.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 34c | 143.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 55c | 136.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 67c | 131.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 127.01$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…408ebacked Yes | 37c | 124.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…8346backed Yes | 37c | 122.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 61c | 117.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 107.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 67c | 105.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 51c | 102.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 101$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…31cabacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 53c | 99.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 39c | 96.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 92.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 92.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…7a9bbacked Yes | 37c | 79.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 44c | 78.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 71.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 69.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 20c | 69.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 36c | 64.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 40c | 63.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…e8b9backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 51c | 57.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 53c | 57.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 56.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 56.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 70c | 51.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 52c | 50.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 46.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 42.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 41.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 75c | 39.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 39.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 35c | 36.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 35.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…96d7backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 32.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0172…d170backed No | 67c | 29.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 26.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 56c | 20.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…5209backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 71c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.