F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4660332081e4aca6fe2456ceb6370f49366257ee43ed138cdb14ced55158a3b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 0c | 5,439$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 4,896$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,204$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,882$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 3c | 1,694$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 7c | 1,501$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 5c | 1,460$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe124…dd2fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…b038backed Yes | 6c | 1,283$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 100 | 20%20 W · 80 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 2c | 1,070$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…6127backed Yes | 3c | 804.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 2c | 781.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 2c | 773.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b7…91b2backed Yes | 7c | 718.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 5c | 690.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 592.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 5c | 554.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…8d9cbacked Yes | 7c | 548.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 6c | 514.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f6…1601backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…46c1backed Yes | 9c | 182.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7095…e69fbacked Yes | 6c | 169.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +852.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b8…030dbacked Yes | 7c | 141.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…7571backed Yes | 8c | 138.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0177…01d6backed Yes | 15c | 66.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.