Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4664393a481daa692176daab7f0067cd0f320e71bfc65f76f3f4204e98e53095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 16c | 5,929$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.61 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 2,706$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.48 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Over | 32c | 1,519$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 17c | 1,033$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.62 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…67a5backed Under | 65c | 824.2$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 73c | 686.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…fa51backed Under | 68c | 609.68$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 72cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 66c | 499.17$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…dfb1backed Over | 23c | 434.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 292.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 18c | 277.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 18c | 139.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 30c | 130.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e5…e24bbacked Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…878cbacked Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…ea61backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 83.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Over | 17c | 79.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Over | 18c | 56.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 38c | 40.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 40c | 27.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…e618backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…0b4ebacked Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.