Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba475393ee1ae117000245c75a4fac298dc2dcebb42b16d0b428c64a7f46b7c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 9,667$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.91 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Over | 80c | 4,396$3,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.2 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 4,150$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.51 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 79c | 3,939$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.84 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 80c | 3,750$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…0f8dbacked Over | 76c | 3,374$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 1,897$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.11 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 21c | 1,187$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 77c | 1,167$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.69 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 76c | 755.61$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 21c | 714.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 22c | 499.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 77c | 454.55$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…70e1backed Under | 22c | 453.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 317.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 22c | 255.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…b0e6backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 24c | 237.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 21c | 133.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Under | 21c | 114.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Under | 26c | 97.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Under | 21c | 96.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Over | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…5139backed Under | 21c | 61.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe209…f457backed Under | 21c | 59.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 22c | 56.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d3…11fdbacked Under | 21c | 56.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…e61ebacked Under | 21c | 53.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…5712backed Over | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba7e…ae58backed Over | 80c | 36.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 78c | 28.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 79c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8a…7fd4backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…87c2backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…95f0backed Over | 80c | 21.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…299abacked Over | 80c | 21.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…c587backed Over | 80c | 20.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ab…b99ebacked Over | 80c | 20.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…43e2backed Over | 80c | 19.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1835…2ca8backed Over | 80c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1076…b0cfbacked Over | 80c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1e…e953backed Over | 80c | 18.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…61aabacked Over | 80c | 18.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d0…fc25backed Over | 80c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…5af8backed Over | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…9bf6backed Over | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…4c43backed Over | 80c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Over | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 78c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…8aa3backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8615…ada0backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…5d27backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…1e5dbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.