Movies · resolved market
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award for "Wicked"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46741b6ffc784a47a1c73beca1d527fb1bc913dd1a68965d6745ce19aa02469c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 625.01$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 19c | 618$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed No | 73c | 544.08$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…82b3backed Yes | 17c | 492.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 73c | 432.19$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 29c | 139$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 79c | 138$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 120.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 71c | 111$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 23c | 60.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…cf01backed No | 80c | 39.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award for "Wicked"?this page
- Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Complete Unknown"?No won
- Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award for "Emilia Pérez"?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.