Movies · resolved market
Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award for "Emilia Pérez"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e28a160a33fbac660c4e66ce22735b78b0d81840c0645d7d7276aba35762416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 75c | 3,403$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 76c | 1,227$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.24 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 25c | 900$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.17 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 560$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed No | 25c | 441.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 73c | 297$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 80c | 272.52$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 80c | 248.46$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 77c | 173.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed No | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 139.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 68c | 126$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 76c | 106$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 73c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 71c | 76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 75c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award for "Emilia Pérez"?this page
- Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award for "Wicked"?No won
- Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Complete Unknown"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.