Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x469fbe4405f69c7985396b90b1b8810bb44a8d54a09937163639aec076edeb04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 77c | 674.2$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 443.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 52c | 367.36$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 64c | 357.01$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 30c | 299.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 59c | 298.26$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed No | 19c | 292.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 55c | 284.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 74c | 279.02$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 65c | 270.48$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 36c | 182.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 27c | 173$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…5683backed Yes | 77c | 139.4$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…1268backed Yes | 75c | 132.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 118.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 39c | 112.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…8bcbbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 98.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 86.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 21c | 84.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 26c | 84.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 66c | 74.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 24c | 68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 79c | 66.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 65.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 64.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 79c | 63.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 17c | 61.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…85aebacked Yes | 48c | 59.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 50c | 56.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 39c | 54.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 26c | 54.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 23c | 52.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…0a22backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 37.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked Yes | 53c | 33.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…7bc0backed Yes | 54c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.