NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b8a2db798cf630f0b4456d24f5ad42f74355424e2072ec9f75ffd556412699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Wizards | 50c | 3,892$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.87 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 50c | 3,783$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,891.4 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3748…a41abacked Celtics | 50c | 3,031$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Celtics | 49c | 2,969$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.38 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Wizards | 54c | 2,918$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.82 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993e…8ee9backed Celtics | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Wizards | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Celtics | 51c | 804.06$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.7 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Celtics | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Wizards | 50c | 798$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Wizards | 50c | 438.2$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.1 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Wizards | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 46c | 237.33$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Wizards | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celtics | 47c | 155.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…31eabacked Celtics | 51c | 152.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 52c | 114.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Wizards | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Wizards | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed Wizards | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Wizards | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Celtics | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Wizards | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 52c | 75.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Celtics | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Wizards | 53c | 58.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Celtics | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Wizards | 49c | 32.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Celtics | 51c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. WizardsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.