NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x762e3d99e0056540223bdc0e729a47d7c4d7c9cc37d1e2277a9f62015f86476e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Over | 52c | 11,510$5,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,549.8 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 10,999$5,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,318.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 51c | 1,962$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,954$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.03 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Under | 48c | 1,237$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.81 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 48c | 1,022$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.56 | 577 | 60.5%349 W · 228 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cef…ce24backed Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 463$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.87 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f0…1a38backed Under | 48c | 448$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 352.68$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…91eabacked Under | 49c | 200.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…44c9backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…31eabacked Over | 53c | 149.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Under | 48c | 118.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 47c | 106.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Over | 53c | 79.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc98…809fbacked Under | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…20c9backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…6574backed Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631e…a121backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. WizardsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.