NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda4e06786fe701da5107103a43e8d701230e4386cc6a3db074d7bc0b0f0c3bfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Wizards | 49c | 3,252$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.74 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Celtics | 50c | 3,006$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.77 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Celtics | 50c | 2,130$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Wizards | 49c | 2,076$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.33 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 55c | 2,027$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.59 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2052backed Celtics | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Wizards | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…d157backed Wizards | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…103dbacked Wizards | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x845b…9041backed Celtics | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Wizards | 45c | 1,652$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.24 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 46c | 1,023$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Celtics | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8567…514cbacked Celtics | 52c | 964.22$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 48c | 884.88$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 53c | 799.71$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.45 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Celtics | 50c | 570.46$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.46 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 54c | 518.52$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Wizards | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…599fbacked Celtics | 51c | 450.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Celtics | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 47c | 323.58$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Wizards | 48c | 295.34$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Celtics | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celtics | 50c | 222$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Wizards | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Wizards | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Wizards | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…45f4backed Celtics | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Celtics | 52c | 190.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Wizards | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Celtics | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Celtics | 54c | 151.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Wizards | 49c | 149.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wizards | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Celtics | 53c | 134.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Wizards | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f0…1a38backed Celtics | 53c | 102.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b0…dd06backed Wizards | 55c | 101$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Wizards | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…3017backed Wizards | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wizards | 53c | 99.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…eafebacked Celtics | 53c | 85.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Celtics | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 49c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 46c | 73.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Wizards | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…e5dabacked Wizards | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Celtics | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Wizards | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Wizards | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…dac8backed Celtics | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…db8fbacked Celtics | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…7d56backed Celtics | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Celtics | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Wizards | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…f34ebacked Celtics | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Celtics | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…1eeebacked Celtics | 55c | 35.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…f67fbacked Wizards | 48c | 34.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Celtics | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…fcedbacked Wizards | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. WizardsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.