NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27c91225c2ca662587c208ca1beca535e4c44410bded7e5b6238a86c58f27398
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 60c | 17,717$10,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,136.78 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 9,184$3,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 60c | 8,251$4,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300.48 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 41c | 4,930$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.3 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 2,154$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 40c | 1,680$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 52c | 1,208$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 2c | 972.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 49c | 734$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.34 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 425.71$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.11 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 42c | 419.27$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 217.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -18.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28a…2045backed Under | 47c | 188$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…25ecbacked Over | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 39c | 179.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 61c | 174.34$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Over | 67c | 147.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over | 50c | 110.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…061cbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…4f13backed Over | 57c | 94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 50c | 71.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2def…c26fbacked Under | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 60c | 46.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 30.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Over | 60c | 21.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Over | 74c | 21.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37d…9f99backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…6cd8backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. WizardsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.