NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89e2d145ee3e4b4efe3d9eb4b43d8d404e476a5731c1c1646614f3412c45756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 3,106$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 54c | 2,252$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 54c | 2,052$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.6 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…e3dabacked Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…796dbacked Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 56c | 1,982$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.11 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,893$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.48 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 57c | 1,755$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.64 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 1,358$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.96 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Under | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 1,170$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 44c | 1,120$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.8 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 46c | 764.91$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 50c | 608.08$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.04 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 50c | 588$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 44c | 430.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.41 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 395$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 54c | 384.96$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.08 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 290$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f0…1a38backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 49c | 145$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Under | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 107.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…3d13backed Over | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 50c | 91.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e3…8a2abacked Over | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef7…b64bbacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 48c | 83.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 47c | 76.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 33c | 74.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…646ebacked Under | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 58c | 52.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…197bbacked Under | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 49c | 34.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…c9ddbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…7df4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. WizardsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.