NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76a9d186fbbcbffbf08343901366116b4d7d2ba873d113829fecf669497e7991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 52c | 4,164$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.69 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 49c | 3,673$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.47 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…15fabacked Under | 53c | 3,499$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.54 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 51c | 3,364$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.64 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,002$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 2,749$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 2,397$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.38 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 1,920$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.05 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Under | 52c | 962.98$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.75 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 36c | 957.57$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.48 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 904$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.44 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Under | 53c | 895$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.7 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 49c | 816.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 50c | 760$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 686.98$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.46 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 64c | 627.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.27 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 50c | 595$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.63 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 482$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 329.97$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…599fbacked Over | 49c | 265.31$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 51c | 223.34$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 222.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…a398backed Under | 52c | 166.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Over | 75c | 144.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Over | 48c | 111.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Under | 10c | 106.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…6ad8backed Under | 49c | 93.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 51c | 58.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 52c | 42.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 46c | 37.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 51c | 35.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Under | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. WizardsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.