Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4720bafa2b8d37a74525191e8a49b7810dc22ba75c4b67a8f9654360b39eee0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 0c | 11,020$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 5c | 952.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 413.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.96 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 35c | 401.36$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.12 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…6ca5backed No | 4c | 386.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 360.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 4c | 354.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 354.69$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 54c | 308.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.86 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 10c | 270.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 252.91$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…e317backed No | 6c | 237.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed No | 11c | 220.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 219.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 218.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 77c | 203.44$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 195.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.92 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 40c | 191.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 42c | 190.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 33c | 170.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 57c | 163.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 158.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.82 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 29c | 146.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 136.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…1502backed Yes | 45c | 111.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 23c | 105.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 76c | 102.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 73c | 100.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 40c | 100.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 97.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 50c | 94.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 89.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 88.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed No | 65c | 87.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 87.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 58c | 83.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 81.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 79.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 39c | 75.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 70.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 72c | 67.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 78c | 66.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a098backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…3a7ebacked Yes | 22c | 62.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 43c | 61.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 63c | 61.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 61c | 59.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 60c | 58.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 43c | 54.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 72c | 53.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 38c | 46.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 45.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 45.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 59c | 41.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 39.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 35.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 42c | 34.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 31c | 34.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 45c | 33.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 33.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 32.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d2…c213backed No | 40c | 32.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 61c | 31.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…0732backed Yes | 36c | 27.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 40c | 27.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 53c | 24.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 59c | 18.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 17.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.