Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x477288f78db0b2c336a7674e11c7dc4fa28f1fe0606851f4e41ff36f66ee375a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde42…2075backed Yes | 1c | 12,336$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,538$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.47 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 832.04$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 741.96$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 30c | 440.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 75c | 386.31$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 26c | 293.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 235.43$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 201$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 165.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 158.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 8c | 142.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 136.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb93e…646cbacked Yes | 26c | 135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 131.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 89.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked Yes | 36c | 85.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…8595backed Yes | 27c | 80.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 30c | 63.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 35c | 57.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 46.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 24c | 44.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 75c | 40.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 73c | 30.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 36c | 27.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 25.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 69c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 23.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 20.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 75c | 18.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.