Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4921c68a33a1d5da40e4c5f1ea3075041dc8cc1767a105b8a8cce08b06f0e04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 1,110$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 59c | 407.61$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 401.88$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 63c | 317.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 303.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 284.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 203.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 199.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 185.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 174.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 58c | 171.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 151.55$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 46c | 130.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 123.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 120.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 51c | 92.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 41c | 84.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 53.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 52.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 53c | 50.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 22c | 45.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 43.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…73e1backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 38.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 30c | 38.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 43c | 37.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 43c | 33.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 43c | 33.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 33.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 50c | 30.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 66c | 30.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 65c | 29.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 51c | 26.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 75c | 26.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 79c | 24.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 54c | 23.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 53c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 20.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…e522backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…de1abacked Yes | 75c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 77c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.