NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Packers: 1H O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47b0cd0cc35ce6f882673b900eb3ef1c8213f1fdf3c978c430dbe0735ab3e3b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 50c | 672.12$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.06 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d565backed Over | 50c | 215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…6d37backed Under | 49c | 207$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…c3a5backed Under | 50c | 203$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cb…842fbacked Over | 51c | 202$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…4f36backed Over | 50c | 196$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…fc18backed Over | 50c | 196$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…af1dbacked Under | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…0bf3backed Under | 50c | 189$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…958cbacked Under | 50c | 186$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…d854backed Over | 49c | 176$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…94ddbacked Under | 51c | 171$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Under | 50c | 27.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Packers: 1H O/U 22.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-0.5)Eagles won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-1.5)Eagles won
- Eagles vs. PackersEagles won
- Eagles vs. Packers: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Packers Team Total: O/U 23.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.