NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6096f91b4cab3580f668a8fb68b33f151103fc021d9d57489f501d015bc939d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eaglesof Packers, Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Eagles | 55c | 7,381$4,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,289.81 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Packers | 44c | 6,385$2,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,809.48 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Packers | 44c | 2,557$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.25 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Eagles | 55c | 2,261$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.42 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Eagles | 56c | 1,979$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.95 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Eagles | 56c | 1,787$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.5 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Packers | 44c | 1,702$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.86 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…28cebacked Packers | 46c | 1,449$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Eagles | 50c | 1,396$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.96 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Packers | 46c | 1,215$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.92 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Packers | 45c | 1,200$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.98 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Packers | 45c | 1,110$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.49 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa8…c219backed Eagles | 55c | 1,070$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Packers | 47c | 1,026$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.01 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Packers | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…643ebacked Eagles | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed Eagles | 54c | 917.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.84 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…bbfcbacked Eagles | 54c | 830$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Packers | 44c | 750$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed Eagles | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Eagles | 56c | 669.64$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.64 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Packers | 46c | 657.71$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.43 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Eagles | 55c | 597.21$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.11 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Packers | 49c | 595.05$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.36 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Eagles | 56c | 551.79$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.79 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f6…4c74backed Packers | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Eagles | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Packers | 44c | 410$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…1b9cbacked Packers | 45c | 374.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…eb41backed Packers | 45c | 370$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884e…6116backed Packers | 46c | 330$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c322backed Packers | 45c | 315$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Packers | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.95 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Eagles | 57c | 291.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Eagles | 55c | 240$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Eagles | 55c | 228.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…436ebacked Packers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Eagles | 56c | 222$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…3d3ebacked Packers | 46c | 208.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Eagles | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Eagles | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Eagles | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Eagles | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Eagles | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Eagles | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Packers | 45c | 163.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Eagles | 55c | 159.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Packers | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…3864backed Eagles | 56c | 123.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Packers | 44c | 119$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Eagles | 56c | 113.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Eagles | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Packers | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Packers | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c99…2c2abacked Eagles | 54c | 67.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…ff10backed Packers | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Eagles | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…40c1backed Eagles | 57c | 52.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Packers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Eagles | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7282…1920backed Eagles | 53c | 46.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0488…aea5backed Eagles | 55c | 45.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Packers | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Eagles | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Packers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Packers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…c33fbacked Packers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Eagles | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…279ebacked Eagles | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Packers | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Eagles | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…4ac1backed Eagles | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Eagles | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…446abacked Eagles | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Eagles | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Packers | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Eagles | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed Eagles | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Eagles | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Eagles | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3775…b928backed Eagles | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-0.5)Eagles won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-1.5)Eagles won
- Eagles vs. PackersEagles won
- Eagles vs. Packers: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Packers: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Packers Team Total: O/U 23.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.