NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Packers: 1H O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384d5e6bd892306e33b5f07bcadc610b11fc7643cd1e8d2199ae335b42b982ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Under | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56ee…5800backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…03f4backed Over | 45c | 196$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…c925backed Under | 55c | 188$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…c987backed Over | 45c | 187$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83e6…8e70backed Over | 44c | 185$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…8f91backed Under | 56c | 177$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…9624backed Under | 55c | 175$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 127.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 56c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 56c | 69.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Under | 57c | 63.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 41c | 55.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 45c | 44.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…bf01backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Packers: 1H O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-0.5)Eagles won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-1.5)Eagles won
- Eagles vs. PackersEagles won
- Eagles vs. Packers: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Packers Team Total: O/U 23.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.